The Survival Gauge

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Ian Rust
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:23 pm
The Survival Gauge

Post by Ian Rust » Fri Feb 08, 2019 6:52 pm

At 5pm tomorrow we will need either 5 or 6 wins from our remaining 15 games to avoid the drop.

That's us needing either 1 win in 3 games if we win tomorrow or 1 win 2.5 games if we don't win. That 0.5 games is a significant difference, because we cannot let the games per win requirement fall below 1 in 2 or we will leave ourselves with championship winning form to stay up.

What we need can be gauged by the table below which shows current games per win for the National League;
If we fail to win tomorrow we will need form equivalent to Barnet this season, but if we can win we will only need Hartlepool type form.

Hopefully, as the games pass we will drop down this table. However, if we find ourselves up the top needing under 2 games per win, thats when we will know we are TOAST.

Orient...............1.82
Solihull..............1.82
Salford..............1.93
Wrexham............1.93
Fylde.................2.07
Gateshead...........2.13
Sutton Utd..........2.14
Harrogate...........2.14
Eastleigh............2.21
Ebbsfleet............2.38
Barnet...............2.60
Barrow...............2.82
Bromley.............2.82
Dagenham & R.....2.82
Hartleppol..........3.10
Boreham Wood.....3.44
Maidenhead.........3.44
Havant & W.........3.88
Dover................4.00
Halifax..............4.29
Aldershot............4.29
Maidstone...........4.42
Chesterfield........6.00
Braintree...........6.20
Last edited by Ian Rust on Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Anon E Mouse
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Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2007 1:29 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Anon E Mouse » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:03 pm

Now the Rusty table was worth waiting for :D

GWRBA
Posts: 114
Joined: Wed Jul 18, 2018 9:33 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by GWRBA » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:45 pm

All very nice, but we only need to finish 5th bottom - you can't predict what we need to be safe, because it's not ONLY down to us. We don't have a stand-along points target in isolation from everybody else.

If the four other teams currently in the bottom 5 lose all of the rest of their games, we only need one more win. Clearly that won't happen, but...

Disturbed Postie
Posts: 2500
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:42 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Disturbed Postie » Fri Feb 08, 2019 7:56 pm

We can win 7 games and still get relegated, as GWRBA says 5th bottom is the target

Oliver11
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Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:22 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Oliver11 » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:06 pm

Haha what a waste of time Rusty - can't predict only estimate but try and win every game and see if that's enough.

Goes without saying tomorrow is winnable and huge with the fixtures coming.

CH
Posts: 402
Joined: Tue Jan 09, 2007 8:31 pm
Location: Aldershot
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by CH » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:09 pm

What we need can be gauged by the table below which shows current wins per game for the National League
;

Doing bloody well to average more than 1 win per game.

Disturbed Postie
Posts: 2500
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:42 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Disturbed Postie » Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:11 pm

In 1999 Kidderminster lost their first 5 games in the conference and still won the league, statistically shouldn’t happen but it did!

Portly Stilton Shot
Posts: 167
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2018 8:55 am
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Portly Stilton Shot » Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:09 am

A masters' degree in mathematics Ian, but my old headmaster would have kept me for an hour after school for spelling Hartlepool like that...

Ian Rust
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:23 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Ian Rust » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:20 pm

Oliver11 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:06 pm
Haha what a waste of time Rusty - can't predict only estimate but try and win every game and see if that's enough.

Goes without saying tomorrow is winnable and huge with the fixtures coming.
You are not understanding. This gauge makes no attempt to predict anything.

It is simply telling you what our chances are of survival are in layman’s terms.

Like when you ask your doctor - What are my chances Doc? - when you are diagnosed with a potentially terminal condition,

Oliver11
Posts: 576
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:22 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Oliver11 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:27 pm

Ian Rust wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:20 pm
Oliver11 wrote:
Fri Feb 08, 2019 8:06 pm
Haha what a waste of time Rusty - can't predict only estimate but try and win every game and see if that's enough.

Goes without saying tomorrow is winnable and huge with the fixtures coming.
You are not understanding. This gauge makes no attempt to predict anything.

It is simply telling you what our chances are of survival are in layman’s terms.

Like when you ask your doctor - What are my chances Doc? - when you are diagnosed with a potentially terminal condition,
I would say our condition is terminal - irreparable condition known as Waddock Syndrome

Hopefully the pain is over shortly!

MikeB
Posts: 139
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 2:04 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by MikeB » Sat Feb 09, 2019 6:41 pm

As others have said there is no standalone points target for us. This isn't a game of darts. We could survive even if we don't win any more games. Likewise we could win 6 or 7 more games and find that we are still relegated.

Ian Rust
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:23 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Ian Rust » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:09 pm

Mike B - You are correct, but what a stupid thing to say given that this is a GAUGE, not a prediction chart!

That's like the Doctor telling you that you have a cancer where 40% of sufferers will still be alive after 5 years and you telling him he's talking rubbish because you could live another 10 years or be dead next week.

Ian Rust
Posts: 119
Joined: Wed Jan 10, 2007 10:23 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Ian Rust » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:15 pm

Oh......and if we fail to beat Solihull on Tuesday it will be 6 wins from 14 games, meaning we will need Ebbsfleet type form over the last 14 games to stay up. Still achievable, but getting harder.

Disturbed Postie
Posts: 2500
Joined: Sat Mar 12, 2016 8:42 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Disturbed Postie » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:21 pm

Truro away opening day sounds nice 👍

Oliver11
Posts: 576
Joined: Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:22 pm
Re: The Survival Gauge

Post by Oliver11 » Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:30 pm

Ian Rust wrote:
Sat Feb 09, 2019 7:15 pm
Oh......and if we fail to beat Solihull on Tuesday it will be 6 wins from 14 games, meaning we will need Ebbsfleet type form over the last 14 games to stay up. Still achievable, but getting harder.
Prediction / Gauge or basic Delusion......

Stop wasting your time Rusty as its done!


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